As expected, the market is quickly returning to the mean as the effects of the tax stimulus disappear in our collective rearview mirror.
Since the last update based on the July 3 statistics, we have seen some interesting shifts:
Since July 3, 2010:
- Total Active properties are up 5%
(from 3,620 to 3,803 homes on the market)
- Total Pending properties are up 3.1%
(from 620 to 639 homes under contract)
- Total Sales are up 7.1%
(from 2600 to 3030 homes now sold year-to-date)
If we compare this to the same date Aug 14, 2009, we see:
Compared to same time last year through August 14, 2009:
- Total Active are up 16%
- Total Pending are down 22.7%
- Total Sold are up 7.1%
- Total Combined Pending & Sold are up 0.3%
(vs a combined total of up 7.8% on July 3, 2010)
At this point for Delaware County PA, it would appear that the stimulus simply moved sales to earlier in the year without really increasing the market. Total Sales are now basically in line with the 2009 rate. With current pendings down 22% from last year, total sales will quickly fall behind the 2009 rate. In addition, a declining sales rate combined with an increasing inventory points to a buyers' market and continued price pressure throughout the market.
We still have the traditionally strong sales months of September and October directly in front of us so activity could easily pick up short term which would quickly help to ease any pressure on prices. With the continuing low interest rates, this remains an incredible opportunity for anyone looking at buying and holding long term. Prices could still decline short term, but over a multi-year time frame, this could be an historic low combination of prices and interest rates. We are already seeing strong turnarounds in some pockets across the country.
As always, if you have any questions or comments, please feel free to let me know anytime.
Long & Foster Real Estate Inc - Newtown Square,PA/Bear, DE
Office: 610-359-3853/Cell: 610-618-0808
(All statistics per the TrendMLS System and believed accurate but not guaranteed)